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WAILUKU - Saying there is hope for more cruise ship stops in 2009, more Mainland visitors and new South Korean and Chinese tourists, a top state tourism official Wednesday said she expects Hawaii to recover from the industry's doldrums brought on by the national economic crisis.

It won't happen this year and it will still be slow in 2009, State Tourism Liaison Marsha Wienert told the Governor's Maui Community Advisory Council, meeting at the Cameron Center.

But Wienert said Maui's $3 billion visitor industry should recover and start seeing gains again in visitors and expenditures by 2010 and 2011.

Maui has been down 11 percent in visitor arrivals since last year and 6 percent in visitor spending, she said. The peak season, from April to July, was down nearly 18 percent in both categories, Wienert said.

However, Wienert said that Hawaii's tourism industry as a whole has been on a consistent climb since 1970 with intermittent peaks and valleys. The next 12 to 18 months will continue to be one of those tough times, Wienert said.

"If history plays out as it has before, then we should come out of this much healthier than we once were," Wienert told the panel. "We have weathered these cycles in the past."

In the last year, visitor arrivals by air to Maui fell by 400,000. One of the challenges will be to convince potential Mainland customers that while the cost of a airline ticket may give them sticker shock, Hawaiian vacation packages remain reasonable, Wienert said.

It's a matter of perception, she said.

The state must continue marketing to its Mainland base, which should also help convince the airlines to maintain the number of seats it provides to Hawaii, she said. The fear is that the airlines, as they struggle with skyrocketing oil prices, will cut the number of flights to the islands. She said once flights are cut, they are very difficult to get back.

However, Wienert also noted a bright spot for Maui is that the number of Canadian visitors has nearly doubled to almost 200,000 in the last four years.

Council Chairwoman Madge Schaefer suggested that the state capitalize on the Canadian boom and make an effort to recognize the country's Remembrance Day in November.

"And we have so many Canadians living here," Schaefer said.

Wienert called the suggestion a great idea as she jotted it down.

She said she hopes to lure more international cruise ships to stop at Maui and Hawaii, with Congress' rejection of a Department of Homeland Security proposal for the Passenger Vessel Security Act. The proposal would have required international-flagged cruise ships to spend more time in an international port than in an American port.

For two-week West Coast cruise operations, that effectively blocked a run to Hawaii, Wienert explained.

About 8,000 cruise ship passengers were lost after Norwegian Cruise Lines pulled two luxury liners from around-Hawaii operations earlier this year, she said. International cruise ship stops in Hawaii also are down.

But Congress said the Homeland Security proposal was too strict, remanding it back to the department to reconsider, she said.

With the rule gone, she said the state hopes more international cruise operators will consider Hawaii itineraries for the fall 2009 season.

Wienert also said the state is hopeful that a memorandum of understanding signed this year to allow free travel between the United States and China, will mean more visitors from that country.

She said tourism officials are also hopeful that the federal government will have a visa waiver for South Korean travelers in effect next year.

The policy changes could almost immediately double or triple the number of visitors from those key growing Asian markets, Wienert said. In anticipation of these new visitors, the state has been working with Kapiolani Community College and several private business education groups to train tourism industry employees in Chinese and Korean language and culture, she said.

Governor's Council Member Shan Steinmark asked Wienert who Hawaii's main competitor is right now for visitors.

"When I started in this business, you could count the number of our competitors on one hand," Wienert said. "The world is now our competitor."

She said the emerging countries, such as Dubai and Vietnam, have come to realize how profitable the tourism industry is.

Council Member Carl Lindquist inquired if Maui's transient vacation rental controversy has had a negative impact on the island's image worldwide, a claim made by short-term rental operators. He wanted to know if that is part why people are staying away.

"People don't travel to a destination for accommodations," said Wienert, who said she monitors news accounts from around the globe about Maui daily. "It may have been a blip at one point, but I haven't seen anything nationally or internationally for some time."

* Chris Hamilton can be reached at chamilton@mauinews.com.